Khabib Nurmagomedov was once a forgotten man after missing 2 years due to a multitude of injuries. Since his return he has dominated the likes of Michael Johnson, Edson Barboza, and Al Iaquinta in route to becoming the UFC’s Lightweight champion. The narrative has become that he is simply an unstoppable wrestler due to the nature of Khabib’s victories where he rag dolled three guys who have very high takedown defense paired with competent striking.
When you examine the roster of UFC champions we can see that all of the champs have one thing in common. They are all highly skilled strikers, all of them except Khabib that is. Many guys like Stipe, Cormier, Demetrious Johnson, etc have great wrestling to fall back on, but they have had to win big championship bouts in fights that were contested primarily on the feet. So is Khabib’s success sustainable? Is he an exception to the rule that you need to have skilled standup in today’s MMA where fighters have become so well rounded? I have my doubts- here’s why.
While Al Iaquinta came nowhere close to beating Khabib, I feel he taught us so much about Khabib. Khabib is going to takedown every fighter essentially at some point if the fight goes on for more than 3 minutes. The difference between Al from Khabib’s two previous opponents was simple- Al had much more resilience on the ground and I attribute this to his wrestling background. He was taken down fairly consistently, but he had enough wrestling to control Khabib’s wrist at times limiting some of the damage, and we saw Khabib tire and fail to takedown Al in rounds 3 and 4 (And No Khabib was not “playing with Al” or intentionally keeping it standing to work on his boxing). Al just didn’t have enough standup to capitalize on Khabib’s weak boxing and poor head movement.
So the first thing I would look for in a fighter that matches up with Khabib is can he A) survive on the ground and B) get back up, and C) capitalize on standup exchanges. Here are the 4 most likely men to defeat Khabib, in my opinion.
1) Eddie Alvarez- Alvarez can be taken down. He’s a good but not elite level wrestler. He presents the most difficult match up for Khabib because he is an extremely difficult finish on the ground and can get back up when taken down. He then is equipped with good standup, much better standup than Al’s and I think he could make Khabib pay in the pocket over the course of a 25 minute fight.
2) Kevin Lee- Here’s a hot take for you, Kevin Lee might be a better wrestler than Khabib. He is a massive Lightweight with a high level wrestling background. At only 25, his standup is still improving and it doesn’t need to be amazing to think he has a shot at beating Khabib in that realm. Good luck to Khabib trying to use that jab he is so proud of versus a man with a 7 inch reach advantage. Kevin Lee’s bout with Edson Barboza this week will be very revealing of how he stacks up vs Khabib and a convincing victory would inch him very close to a title shot.
3) Justin Gaethje- This fight will sadly probably never happen because Gaethje’s style just isn’t built to get through the gauntlet of high level strikers in the 155 pound division so he will probably never get a title shot. His all American wrestling, unbelievable toughness, and hard hitting striking would present problems for Khabib who i really don’t think would be able to maul him for 25 minutes.
4) Conor Mcgregor- He would be the biggest underdog of the bunch for me. He does have a path to victory in round 1 as his striking is so vastly superior to Khabib’s. However, I think once Khabib lands the first takedown the fight would be over as Conor has shown cardio holes.
I think it is very foolish to assume Khabib will be able to sustain his success with a one dimensional style given that every fighter he faces going forward will have better standup than him. Good luck hitting the takedowns every round in every fight going forward. I don’t see the most dominant champ in the sport, I see the most vulnerable.
The MMA Angle 